NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 5: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees reacts to hitting a home run ... [+]
A sense of urgency surrounds the New York Yankees this offseason as they strive to assemble a championship-caliber roster while addressing key deficiencies such as youth, athleticism, left-handed hitters, and outfield defense. As they explore a variety of possibilities, many believe the spark to ignite change begins with a trade for San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto. A costly endeavor for an outstanding talent, Soto would quell concerns and regain trust from a bewildered fan base. However, don’t be surprised if the path towards prosperity begins with making a difficult decision regarding second baseman Gleyber Torres’ future in the Bronx.
Soto’s time with the Padres could be coming to an end given current trade rumors and the ball club receiving a $50 million loan in September to cover payroll obligations and short-term expenses according to Evan Drellich, Dennis Lin, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The financial burdens of five long-term contracts exceeding nine figures in value and the Padres’ disappointing performance last season make it nearly impossible for them to consider a future with Soto as he is free agent at the conclusion of the 2024 season. He could earn $33 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility according to Matt Swartz’s model to project salaries for arbitration-eligible ball players for MLB Trade Rumors. Prior to his trade to the Padres in August 2022, Soto rejected a 15-year contract extension from the Washington Nationals worth a reported $440 million according to The Athletic.
At various points in his six-year major league career, the 25-year-old Soto has drawn lofty comparisons to the iconic outfielder Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox. A left-handed outfielder who never experienced a season where his on-base percentage (OBP) had fallen below .400 according to Baseball-Reference, Soto is an offensive force of nature who understands the value associated with base on balls. However, he is also a defensive liability according to data presented by FanGraphs. In terms of defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rating (UZR) over 6,516 innings in the outfield, he has fared poorly in both advanced metrics with a -15 DRS and -8.7 UZR. As a right fielder (2,567.1 innings), Soto has posted a 1 DRS and -0.3 UZR, but has performed far worse as a left fielder (3,948.2 innings) with a -16 DRS and -8.5 UZR.
As the Yankees are looking to enhance their speed and aggressiveness on the base paths, Soto’s baserunning skills are also an area of concern given an extra bases taken percentage (XBT%) last season of 35% where league average per 600 plate appearances was 42% according to Baseball-Reference. This was a sharp decline from the 44% he had achieved during the 2022 season. Soto had the fifth most stolen base opportunities (326) in Major League Baseball last season while only stealing 12 bases in 17 attempts. His run scoring percentage (RS%) of 24% was below the 31% league average per 600 plate appearances even though he was one of 21 ball players who scored at least 97 runs during the 2023 season.
In his fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility, the Yankees must determine whether Torres is a cornerstone ball player or should they consider trade options given his current value and contract status. Last offseason, he signed a one-year contract worth $9.95 million according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even though the Yankees haven’t talked about a contract extension with Torres, there is a belief throughout the industry that he could receive a one-year contract worth $15.3 million for his age-27 season according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Statistical comparisons are the bedrock upon which ball players are critiqued whether it is arbitration, free agency, or trades. A rare bright spot for the Yankees last season, Torres was one of eight second basemen who accumulated at least 1,000 innings defensively at the position according to FanGraphs. The group was headlined by 2023 Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winner Andrés Giménez whose defensive excellence in several key statistics demonstrates a sizable gap between him and Torres. As 2024 will mark his age-25 season, Giménez is a two-time American League Gold Glove Award winning second baseman and started the 2022 All-Star Game in his only selection.
In terms of DRS and UZR provided by FanGraphs for the 2023 season, Giménez’s 23 DRS and 6.8 UZR are far superior to Torres’ -4 DRS and -2.2 UZR. When it comes to the Statcast metrics outs above average (OAA), Giménez’s 18 OAA far outpaces Torres’ -3 OAA. Torres led all 12 qualified second basemen with 15 errors at the position.
Even though Torres will never be mistaken for a defensive wizard, there is something to be said about his offensive value that could offset shortcomings at second base. In a head-to-head comparison with Giménez in 15 offensive categories from this past season, Torres fares favorably in several of the statistics. An interesting observation is how Giménez’s defense and baserunning positively influence his wins above replacement (WAR) based on Baseball-Reference’s calculation of the statistic. Giménez’s 5.3 WAR exceeds Torres’ 2.9 WAR for the 2023 season.
Giménez provides another fascinating perspective for the Yankees when it comes to assessing Torres’ market value. This past March, Giménez signed a seven-year, $106.5 million contract extension with the Cleveland Guardians which includes a $23 million club option ($2.5 million buyout) for the 2030 season according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The average annual value of the contract is $15,214,286, a difference of $85,714 from the $15.3 million projection Torres could receive in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Are the Yankees willing to offer Torres a contract extension similar in length to Giménez but with an average annual value of at least $20 million?
It is presently unclear as to how ambitious the New York Yankees will be this offseason given their significant needs at a variety of positions. A return to normalcy begins with a spark that ignites positive momentum. Even though it is easy to be seduced by Juan Soto and his vast talents, financial concerns and a possible contract extension will complicate trade conversations. Regardless of Soto, the Yankees must be open-minded when it comes to assessing the trade market for Gleyber Torres. If they are not willing to consider a contract extension for Torres, the time is now to be bold and actively pursue quality ball players in exchange for his services.
