Senegal: Is political crisis pushing more migrants to depart?

Political and economic instability in Senegal are just two of the factors pushing more migrants to depart the West African country. This is not the first time the country has seen political turmoil, but clashes and political violence erupted again at the beginning of June this year.

According to the French international broadcaster France 24, the government has claimed 16 deaths, while opposition forces say as many as 30 people have died.

🎧 Also listen: Tales from the Border, Senegal -- Crossing the Atlantic Ocean

The most recent spate of violence, which comes after two years of worsening political stability in the country, seems to correlate with an increase in the number of migrant boats attempting the Atlantic crossing to the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago.

In 2022, just three boats were recorded to have left Senegal to reach the Canary Islands. Many more departed from Morocco, which is further north, to make the shorter crossing from there. Since the beginning of June, around 30 boats have attempted the longer crossing from Senegal and neighboring Gambia. Nineteen have arrived, according to Spanish daily newspaper El Pais.

Senegal scores low on UN's HDI index

Political instability in the southern Casamance region of Senegal, where much of the opposition to the government is concentrated, has caused internal migration within Senegal, according to the Vatican's Integral Human Development agency, which looks at the situation of migrants around the world.

Also read: Eight found dead in a boat off Senegal's coast

In the European Union study "Imagining Europe from the Outside" which ran from 2010-2013, the study's authors found that three out of four people in Senegal saw migration as key to improving their lives and standing within their country and hoped to do so.

In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic trends have made the economic and social situation worse for many in Senegal too. Net growth fell in 2020 and Senegal was ranked 170th out of 191 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index list in 2021-2022, slightly above its neighbor Gambia.

Youth displaying 'enormous frustration'

"There’s enormous frustration among the youth," Saliou Diouf, president of the Senegalese humanitarian association Boza Fii, told El Pais.

The owner of a van that usually carries tourists from the capital Dakar to Casamance told El Pais he recently received a commission to transport young people hoping to board a boat to the Canaries.

Also read: Nearly 1,000 migrants died on Africa-Spain routes in six months

The driver told El Pais he had been asked to take seven people towards a town called Kafountine in the south, where they boarded a boat. "They left in a canoe and were intercepted in Mauritania," he said.

Many of the boats leaving southern Senegal hug the West African coast for as long as possible before heading west towards the Canary Islands.

However, increased checks by Morocco may have encouraged some boats to push out to sea earlier, potentially making the crossing even more dangerous, as the journey is longer from Senegal and Gambia.

At least four boats set sail from south

The driver of the tourist van said the group he transported were not the only ones who set sail from that area. He counted at least four boats -- one that set off from Kafountine, one from Dianah and two from Abene. He said the police were busy trying to round up those who might have organized the smuggling and had already made "many arrests."

Also read: Hundreds reported missing en route to the Canary Islands

Some of the boats were intercepted in Senegalese waters, while others were stopped before they left Mauritania and Morocco. The Spanish NGO Caminando Fronteras (Walking Borders) warns that at least three of the boats are still missing, with perhaps 300 people on board. However, the Spanish government told El Pais that "this information lacks any foundation."

"According to the verifications carried out...between June 28 and July 9, 260 Senegalese in danger were rescued in Moroccan territorial waters, a government spokesperson said in a statement from the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Waiting for news

One Senegalese man, Pape Malick Diouf, is still waiting to hear from his older brother Saliou, who set off from Saint Louis in Senegal on June 7 with 40 other people.

"He left around 9 p.m. on the night of June 7,” Diouf told El Pais by phone. “Since that day, I haven’t had any news or heard from his companions." Last Tuesday, eight bodies were rescued from the sea in waters off Saint Louis, reports El Pais, but it is unclear if this was the boat on which Diouf’s brother may have been traveling.

Also read: Spanish prosecutor opens investigations into deaths of migrants

It is also not entirely unusual for family members not to hear from their relatives for months after they reach Europe, as many lose their phones, money and documents en route and it might be weeks or months before they are able to acquire a new one to contact family.

Others might wait until their situation has improved, fearing they would worry family members if they were open about the reality of their circumstances, which often entail extreme poverty and sleeping rough in Europe -- far from the dream many hope for.

One man who made the crossing many years ago and arrived in Spain as a minor told InfoMigrants it was more than six months before he was able to let his mother know he was safe.

Charges and sentence cause more unrest

The political situation in Senegal has been unstable for the last two years. It worsened at the beginning of June, when the country’s opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was handed a two-year prison sentence.

Sonko, who enjoys popular support in Senegal, had been placed on trial on accusations of rape and uttering death threats, but was actually convicted of an archaic charge described as "corrupting the youth" after prosecutors claimed he had sexual relations with a 19-year-old girl, El Pais reports.

Sonko says the crimes have been fabricated to try and eliminate him from the Presidential race due to be held next February. In the days following his sentence, several pro-Sonko riots took place in the capital Dakar and the town of Ziguinchor in the Casamance region, where Sonko was elected mayor in May 2022.

Since the sentence, Sonko has been under a form of house arrest. El Pais reports that the government hasn’t dared to transfer him to jail, fearing this would lead to even more riots.

Also read: Spain extends migrant worker program to Senegal

Many young people, especially those who support Sonko, see no hope for a future. Some of those who have taken part in protests have been jailed, and some country experts believe this is leading young people to feel desperate. When Sonko was arrested in March 2021, 14 people died in violence protesting his arrest, according to The Conversation.

Support and funding from diverse sections of society

Sonko has managed to mobilize support from students, the Senegalese diaspora and the working class through fundraising and modern campaigns using social media, according to The Conversation.

As a former tax inspector, Sonko has spoken out in the media about alleged financial scandals and won election off the back of his declaration to fight corruption and religious conservatism. In 2019, he won about 15% of the votes.

Also read: Senegal aims to stop migration by building up community

Not everyone supports the politician, however. The case for which Sonko was sentenced in June allegedly involves an employee of a massage parlor. Some feminist groups underline the fact that in the past Sonko has made what they call misogynistic statements, and that his alleged frequentation of massage parlors or brothels shows a lack of respect for women as equal members of society, according to The Conversation.

They say the image he likes to project as morally upstanding and rigorous is tarnished by the prostitution accusations.

One young man, Mohamed Diop from Mbour, told El Pais, "right now, people don’t want to stay in Senegal...there’s no peace. The political crisis has had an impact without a doubt."

Sonko, however, is hoping to convince young people that they should not try and migrate but stay and fight for their futures in Senegal.

From his house arrest, he told El Pais, "Don’t run away from your destiny – stay and, together, let’s fight the only fight that’s worthwhile: the sovereign construction of our economic and social development."

Frontex prepares for more migration along the West Africa route

Frontex, Europe's border agency, has been observing the political situation in Senegal. In an internal report, the agency noted, "The current political situation will act as a push factor that will drive more people to leave the country and encourage demand for smugglers on the West African route. At the same time, the growing number of refugees and third-country nationals moving to Mauritania may increase the number of people trying to reach the Canary Islands."

Also read: Dying to reach Europe, the Atlantic crossing

In June, 2,807 people arrived on the Canary Islands. Better weather made crossings easier, but the increase in arrivals after months of very few suggests other factors are at work too. The busiest months for arrivals in the Canary Islands tend to be July, August and October, so Frontex expects "migratory pressure on the Canary Islands...to persist in the near future."

Presidential power

In addition to the political pressures, droughts, food shortages and a lack of jobs are also making it more tempting for those considering leaving for Europe. According to analysis in The Conversation, the current political crisis can be traced back in part to 2021 when the current President Macky Sall first took power. At the time, there was hope that democracy would reign supreme in Senegal, as Sall’s election as President stopped his predecessor Abdoulaye Wade from undertaking a third mandate, which would have been against the rules.

However, power in Senegal has been concentrated in the President’s hands since 1962 and over the years, Sall also appears to have favored a heavy-handed rule to opposition.

Opposition increases power in mayoral elections

In January 2022, many opposition candidates won mandates in mayoral elections in several of the big cities. This may have made the ruling powers more determined to ensure they can win another mandate for their side in the forthcoming presidential elections.

Along with a few political candidates, some journalists have also been arrested, The Conversation reports.

Most of the other opposition parties have also continued to support Sonko against the government. In early July, Sonko told France 24 that Senegal could face "indescribable chaos" if he were prevented from contesting February’s presidential election.

'Indescribable chaos'

"There will be indescribable chaos if President Macky Sall uses judicial tricks to prevent my candidacy," warned Sonko. Sonko said that come the elections, he would win "in the first round" saying that a majority of Senegalese people wanted to see him in power.

Sonko also said that Sall’s recent announcement he would be stepping down in February 2024 was "not because he is a democrat" but more to do with pressure from his own people and the international community.

Sonko called once again for "free, transparent and inclusive elections" and said that at the end of his term, he hoped that Sall "and his family will be able to leave in peace," according to reporting by France 24.